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WASHINGTON — Overshadowed by
the debate over passenger screening is a terrorist threat as
real and elusive as a hijacking — the
possibility of terrorists using shoulder-fired missiles (search) to
down a commercial jet, either on the tarmac or in the air. “We could face a grim future if we do
nothing,” security expert David Forbes of BoydForbes
Security (search) told
an audience this week at the Cato Institute (search),
which sponsored a discussion on shoulder-fired missiles, or man-portable
air defense systems (MANPADs)(search). Forbes pointed to a thwarted missile attack
against an Israeli charter plane off the coast of Kenya in
November 2002 — the first documented action against
a commercial airliner outside of a war zone. He called the
incident a “precursor” for anti-U.S. attacks in the
future. “There are hundreds of thousands of [MANPADs]
proliferated throughout the world, that’s the threat we need
to deal with,” said Alvin Schnurr, security expert with
defense contractor Northrop Grumman (search). Testifying before the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence on Tuesday, Vice Admiral Lowell E.
Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency
(search),
emphasized the threat. “A MANPAD attack against civilian
aircraft would produce a large number of casualties,
international publicity and a significant economic impact on
civil aviation,” Jacoby said. “These systems are highly
portable, easy to conceal, inexpensive, available in the global
weapons market, and instruction manuals are on the Internet.” Experts say that since the late 1950s,
hundreds of thousands of MANPADs have been manufactured
worldwide, with countless numbers frequently made and
distributed to nefarious sources by cash-strapped countries. The United States itself provided the
Afghan resistance thousands of its Stinger-style
(search)
missiles to fight the Soviets in the 1980s. The fighters
used the shoulder-fired rockets to damage or destroy
hundreds of Soviet aircraft. Now, those weapons are bought and sold on
the black market and used against U.S interests, experts
contend. Forbes said about 27 terror groups have access to the
weapons, which are still being manufactured in 20 countries. MANPADs are typically about five feet long
and weight approximately 30 to 40 pounds — they can
fit in a golf bag. They can be launched from anywhere within an
airport perimeter, and even outside the property — as
far as 10,000 feet from their target. James Carafano, a counter-terrorism expert
at the Heritage Foundation (search),
said MANPADS are easy to find and smuggle, which makes them a
very real threat to airplanes. “Is it going to happen? Yeah, it’s just
a matter of time,” he told Foxnews.com. The weapons — most of which use
guided infrared sensors (search) to
find their target — go for about $5,000 apiece on the
black market. U.S troops are offering hundreds of dollars to buy
back missiles from Iraqis today, Forbes said. While efforts are being made in the private
sector and the Department of Homeland Security to perfect
anti-missile systems to protect U.S aircraft, some proponents
are demanding more energy and resources, and insist on having it
sooner than later. “They have not moved as aggressively as
they need to,” said Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I., a member of the
House Homeland Security Committee. Langevin told Foxnews.com
that a program currently testing onboard, anti-missile systems
to protect planes from MANPADs needs more money than the $60
million budgeted for it in 2004. Langevin has co-sponsored legislation that
would require such onboard systems, much like the
countermeasures used by military planes in Iraq on carrier jets.
He admits that it is an expensive endeavor that does not have
the attention of Congress. “I’m hoping it would be taken more
seriously,” he said. But Chuck Pena, director of defense policy
studies at Cato, said equipping the more than 6,600 domestic
commercial airplanes with complex anti-missile systems
could cost upwards of $20 billion. And even then, no system is
fail-safe. It is necessary to do something, however,
including cutting wasteful or obsolete defense programs to pay
for it, he said. “We’d be closing a terrorist
loophole,” Pena said, adding that since tougher passenger
screening and airport security have been put into place since
the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, terrorists are inevitably
looking at other ways to exploit vulnerabilities. “Commercial aircraft are not equipped
with countermeasures and commercial pilots are not trained in
evasive measures. An attack could occur with little or no
warning, ” Jacoby testified. “Terrorists may attempt to
capitalize on these vulnerabilities. ” MANPADs have been used in at least four
attacks, including two hits against U.S targets in Iraq, one of
which downed a military transport plane in January. No deaths
resulted. Last August, the FBI — with
assistance from Russian and British authorities — thwarted
an attempt by a man with links to Al Qaeda (search) to
purchase a MANPAD in Russia and smuggle it into the United
States. Schnurr said testing is in the works on a
ground-based laser system that would seek and destroy any
projectiles launched at an aircraft at or above an airport. But
like the onboard systems, as well as all of the other
considerations dealing with missile prevention, the costs are
somewhat inestimable. But Carafano said countermeasures need to
be launched now so that they will be effective in the
short-term. “Let’s assume that a plane is going to
be taken down, because that is going to happen,” said Carafano.
“So let’s sit down and figure out what we’re going to do
now, not after a plane gets shot down.”
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